Estimate of correlation between the metrological drought on Ethiopia the Hydrological drought on Egypt
Keywords:
Ethiopia; Dongola; Meteorological drought; Hydrological drought.Abstract
Drought is one of the most complex natural phenomena and one of the main natural causes affecting agriculture, the economy and the environment in the world, and its impact has become evident significantly on the level of life on the globe in recent decades. It leads to droughts in different regions, so assessing the intensity of the drought period is one of the most important tools for sustainable agriculture, as drought has become a phenomenon in many parts of the world, especially in the East and North Africa region.The most important type of drought is metrological and hydrological drought, Drought indices were used to survey drought and demonstrate its performance. As a country in the world, Egypt suffers from water scarcity, especially in recent years. Therefore, the importance of studying Ethiopia as a study area comes due to the presence of the Blue Nile, which contributes about 85% of the Nile River's revenue.Metrological drought was calculated by the Standard Precipitation Index (SPI), and by hydrological by the Streamflow Drought Index (SDI) during the period from 1950 to 2017 based on the availability of the recorded data for meteorological stations in Ethiopia, and the streamflow for Dongola station, and then these data were evaluated using various methods, including homogeneity between the data for each station by considering the different time scales of periods 1, 3, 6, 9, and 12 months., As a result, There are three seasons of rain in Ethiopia, Kiremt is the main rainy season from June to September, Bega is the dry season from October to January, Belg is the lowest rainy season from February to May and Ethiopia characterized by four precipitation regimes, and we found a correlation between the meteorological index (SPI) for five stations in Ethiopia, and the hydrological index (SDI) for Dongola.Keywords: Ethiopia; Dongola; Meteorological drought; Hydrological drought.
References
Azareh, A., Rahdari, M. R., Sardoii, E. R., & Moghadam, F. A. (2014). Investigate the relationship between hydrological and meteorological droughts in Karaj dam basin. European Journal of Experimental Biology, 4(3), 102-107.
Boudad, B., Sahbi, H., & Mansouri, I. (2018). Analysis of meteorological and hydrological drought based in SPI and SDI index in the Inaouen Basin (Northern Morocco). J Mater Environ Sci, 9, 219-227.
Cheung, W. H., Senay, G. B., & Singh, A. (2008). Trends and spatial distribution of annual and seasonal rainfall in Ethiopia. International Journal of Climatology, 28(13), 1723-1734.
Dawit, A. (2010). Future climate of Ethiopia from PRECIS Regional Climate Model Experimental Design. Ethiopia http://www. metoffice. gov. uk/media/pdf/o/9/PRECIS_Experimental_ Design_Dawit. pdf (accessed 10 August 2013).
Gebremichael, A., Quraishi, S., & Mamo, G. (2014). Analysis of Seasonal Rainfall Variability for Agricultural Water Resource Management in Southern Region, Ethiopia. Analysis, 4(11).
Guttman, N. B. (1998). Comparing the palmer drought index and the standardized precipitation index1. JAWRA Journal of the American Water Resources Association, 34(1), 113-121.
Guttman, N. B. (1999). Accepting the standardized precipitation index: a calculation algorithm 1. JAWRA Journal of the American Water Resources Association, 35(2), 311-322.
Kidanewold, B., Seleshi, Y., & Melesse, A. (2014). Surface Water and Groundwater Resources of Ethiopia: Potentials and Challenges of Water Resources Development (pp. 97-118).
Mishra, A. K., & Singh, V. P. (2010). A review of drought concepts. Journal of hydrology, 391(1-2), 202-216.
Mohamed, M. A. (2013). Impact of climatic variability on Nile River water resources and its flood fluctuations in Ethiopia.
Mohamed, M. M. A. (2016). Water Balance Modelling for the Sudan's Four Basins of Blue Nile, White Nile, Atbara River, and Main Nile. The Egyptian International Journal of Engineering Sciences & Technology, 22, 27-34.
Ratner, B. (2009). The correlation coefficient: Its values range between+ 1/? 1, or do they? Journal of targeting, measurement and analysis for marketing, 17(2), 139-142.
Romilly, T. G., & Gebremichael, M. (2011). Evaluation of satellite rainfall estimates over Ethiopian river basins. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 15(5), 1505-1514.
Seleshi, Y., & Zanke, U. (2004). Recent changes in rainfall and rainy days in Ethiopia. International Journal of Climatology, 24(8), 973-983.
Shang, H., Yan, J., Gebremichael, M., & Ayalew, S. M. (2011). Trend analysis of extreme precipitation in the Northwestern Highlands of Ethiopia with a case study of Debre Markos. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 15(6), 1937-1944.
Tadege, A. (2001). Initial national communication of Ethiopia to the United Nations framework convention on climate change (UNFCCC) National Meteorological Services Agency. Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.
Taylor, R. (1990). Interpretation of the correlation coefficient: a basic review. Journal of diagnostic medical sonography, 6(1), 35-39.
Tigkas, D. (2008). Drought characterisation and monitoring in regions of Greece. European Water, 23(24), 29-39.
Tsakiris, G., Loukas, A., Pangalou, D., Vangelis, H., Tigkas, D., Rossi, G., & Cancelliere, A. (2007). Drought characterization. Drought management guidelines technical annex, 85-102.
Tsakiris, G., Nalbantis, I., Vangelis, H., Verbeiren, B., Huysmans, M., Tychon, B., . . . Engelen, G. (2013). A system-based paradigm of drought analysis for operational management. Water resources management, 27(15), 5281-5297.
Vicente-Serrano, S. M., Beguería, S., & López-Moreno, J. I. (2010). A multiscalar drought index sensitive to global warming: the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index. Journal of climate, 23(7), 1696-1718.
Vicente-Serrano, S. M., & López-Moreno, J. I. (2005). Hydrological response to different time scales of climatological drought: an evaluation of the Standardized Precipitation Index in a mountainous Mediterranean basin. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 9(5), 523-533.
Wilhite, D. A. (2000). Drought as a natural hazard: concepts and definitions.
Wilhite, D. A. (2012). Drought assessment, management, and planning: theory and case studies: theory and case studies (Vol. 2): Springer Science & Business Media.
Zarch, M. A. A., Malekinezhad, H., Mobin, M. H., Dastorani, M. T., & Kousari, M. R. (2011). Drought monitoring by reconnaissance drought index (RDI) in Iran. Water resources management, 25(13), 3485.
Zeidan, B. (2015). Water Conflicts in the Nile River Basin: Impacts on Egypt Water Resources Management and Road Map.
