Supply Response Of Syrian Wheat Farmers Using Time Series Data With Special Attention To Crisis: A Nerlovian Partial Adjustment Model Approach

Abstract

Food security in Syria constituted the main objective of the Syrian agricultural strategy. Agricultural strategies and policies until the mid-1980s were largely directed towards achieving self-sufficiency in strategic crops. The wheat crop is one of the most important strategic crops in Syria, as its strong association with food security policies gives it great importance. The study estimates wheat supply response in Syria using time series data from 1991 to 2020. This study analyses the effects of price and non-price factors on the supply response of wheat using the Nerlovian partial adjustment model. The results show a long-run and short-run price elasticity which indicate that wheat farmers easily adjust area devoted to wheat given price changes, suggest the success of the pricing policy adopted by the government before the crisis as a strategy to achieve self-sufficiency in strategic crops. An adjustment coefficient indicates that the time taken to adjust from the actual to the desired area level is relatively fast. The results confirm that crisis period (2011-2020) had a negative and significant impact on area (p < 0.01). Given this finding, the government needs to focus during the period of reconstruction on pricing policy and should make great efforts to direct investments to rebuild the infrastructure that was greatly affected during the crisis period and to provide support to farmers in the form of agricultural loans, which could play a pivotal role in increasing production